It earned it's success. Next to the first flick, this is easily the strongest entry in the series.

You are NOT alone in that assessment - it's the first installment in the series to hit a CinemaScore A rating!

In terms of ROI, here's how the John Wick installments have returned on their investments:

• John Wick (2014) rode a CinemaScore B to a pay of $4.44, nice
• John Wick Chapter 2 (2017) hit a CinemaScore A- for a pay of $4.29 which is splendid given the average 1st sequel usually only musters 35% of the original installment's ROI (this is ~3x that)
• John Wick Chapter 3 - Parabellum (2019) also hit CinemaScore A- en route to paying $5.94 which is splendid given the gross majority of 3rd installments struggle to capture ~16% of original installment's ROI, let alone exceed it.

What's also also noteworthy is that this franchise did allow some budget creep. Skyrocketing budget often scuttles sequel profit success. Chapter 3's budget is almost 3x that of the 1st installment but its revenues managed to exceed that pace, pulling in 3.6x more.

The franchise, thus far, has paid $5.10, solidly above the average of $3.63 for all ~2800 titles in my database from 1924 to present. They've managed the money quite well...

John Wick Chapter 4 had a production budget of $90 million:

• to ambitiously hit that franchise average $5.10, revenues need to hit $459 million
• to modestly just do movie average $3.63, revenues need to hit $326 million

As we all know, box office performance is neither the best nor the only measure of a movie; that said, based on fan loyalty, reviews, and past performance, I'd imagine $400 million should be within reach, for a $4.44 payout which - whaddya know - would match the 1st installment. Toss in that sparkling CinemaScore A and $500 million shouldn't be out of the question, which would pay $5.55 approaching the Chapter 3 ballpark.

Place your bets!

As I typed that, I realized, I've never thought to measure the ratios between budget, opening weekend box office, and final theatrical revenue. Is there math that indicates what the revenue will be based on the opening weekend as a function of budget? (obviously, $3 million on opening weekend means different things to a movie with a $400K budget than it does a movie with a $50 million budget)....

It might just not be needed - Hollywood has tended to take the Cinemascore as the early indicator of where they're going to end up, and it has tended to be pretty good at telling them if, or to what degree, roughly, they're likely to make their money back or not. Still, I wonder if there's known math out there that tells a clearer story? Yes, I can search the internet, I'll get to it, at some point.

At any rate, let's keep an eye on JW Chapter 4 and see what we shall see.

The first John Wick is by far the worst of this series. It's the only one I'd call average. It bored me during many parts and I didn't find anything special about it.

Then with the absolutely fantastic John Wick 2 everything changed for massive superiority.

John Wick 2, 3 and 4 are all action masterpieces.

@DRDMovieMusings said:

At any rate, let's keep an eye on JW Chapter 4 and see what we shall see.

Just circling back to update the numbers.

John Wick Chapter 4 had a production budget of $90 million:

Production jumped to $100M.

based on fan loyalty, reviews, and past performance, I'd imagine $400 million should be within reach

Box office hit $440M.

for a $4.44 payout which - whaddya know - would match the 1st installment

Paid $4.40

Every once in a while, the movie makers are right on the money, and we can measure this by the math being bang-on to within pennies of a dollar.