Discuss Top Gun: Maverick
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Early box office notes
posted by DRDMovieMusingsSTAFFMOD on May 30, 2022 at 2:28 AM
Top Gun had a budget of $15M and generated $356.8M, paying a splendid $23.79 revenue for each budget dollar.
Top Gun: Maverick had a budget of >10x the 1986 first installment, $170M. To repeat the profitability, it'll have to generate over $4Bn....not going to happen.
The average ROI on the first sequel (2nd installment) in a franchise is 35% of the 1st installment, so 35% of $23.79 is $8.33, which would be total box office of $1.4Bn, which is well within reach.
In my database of over 2400 titles dating back to 1924, I've got 42 titles that have pulled in upwards of $1Bn - of note:
- first was Titanic, 1997
- I've got eight titles in 2019 that topped $1Bn the last full year before the shut down
- I've got five titles that have topped $2Bn
- I've no title that hit $3Bn (Avengers: Endgame and Avatar both approached $2.8Bn)
Judging by the reviews thus far, this seems like a good movie for the big screen, at least, in terms of action. American jingoism may be too low to buoy this up far beyond those seeking some 80s nostalgia, but 1) the action component, 2) people wanting to be out and amongst other people, and 3) that nostalgia factor, should come together to do solid business.
Last note - opening weekend was good, at $248M, compare that with, say, The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, which put up $250M en route to a final box office of $1.1Bn, which, waddya know? is roughly in the ballpark with our above estimate for TG:M of $1.4Bn. I'd say it's shaping up better for TG:M because TLotR:RotK had to compete for movie-goers dollars with a few action movies, while I don't expect there is going to be much competition in theatres to slow down ticket sales.
Let's see where TG:M finally lands.
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on June 5, 2022 at 3:22 PM
TG: M has surpassed $500M worldwide - it's now paid back $3.23 in revenue for each budget dollar.
Still hasn't released across all global markets yet, so our outlook (paying $8.33 on revenues over $1.4Bn) is not dead yet.
Sequels are curious, from a business perspective, because they seldom every make anywhere near as much money as their respective first installments (I've crunched some numbers, if I could post a graph on this site, you'd see it very clearly - I'll write an entry on my blog at some point, because pictures are often worth thousands of words). Making a sequel almost always costs more in budget, which is the first challenge to repeating ROI. Expectations can also kill ticket sales - the first installment is usually a big surprise, as people brought little expectations; but then, sequels must live up to the hype, and it can be tough to catch lightning in a bottle twice. At any rate, Top Gun (1986) paid $23.79 - if TG: M (2022) pays anywhere near even our target of one third of that, producers will be ecstatic. You know, law of diminished returns or something.
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on June 17, 2022 at 5:07 PM
Now at $806M, paying $4.74, and counting...
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on June 22, 2022 at 1:29 AM
Now at $901,900,000 paying $5.30...
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on June 25, 2022 at 5:24 PM
$926.6M, paying $5.45....
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on June 26, 2022 at 6:30 PM
$1,006,423,000.00 paying $5.92
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on June 30, 2022 at 3:54 PM
$1,021,000,000 paying $6.01
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on July 4, 2022 at 2:29 PM
$1,108,520,367 paying $6.52
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on July 15, 2022 at 2:29 PM
$1,191,900,127 paying $7.01 - not sure if it's going to get to $8.33, but this ain't terrible!
I didn't take snapshots at regular time intervals, so the current logarithmical target of $1.25Bn, paying $7.38 isn't the sharpest...but let's see how it goes over the next two weeks.
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on July 18, 2022 at 5:50 PM
$1,238,831,332 paying $7.29
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on July 21, 2022 at 6:31 PM
$1.244Bn, paying $7.32
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on July 26, 2022 at 4:55 PM
$1.284Bn paying $7.55
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on July 31, 2022 at 4:29 PM
$1.321Bn paying $7.77
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on August 8, 2022 at 11:11 AM
$1.353Bn paying $7.96 which is 33.5% of original's pay.
Still in theatres though - is there another $46.8M out there to hit this pay target of $8.33?
Let's see...
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on August 14, 2022 at 3:55 PM
Picked up another $25.5M, bringing total to $1.378Bn, paying $8.11 which is 34.1% of original's pay.
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on August 19, 2022 at 3:58 PM
Picked up another $3.4M, bringing total to $1.382Bn, paying $8.13, which is 34.2% of original pay, and lands within less than 1% margin of error to target pay of $8.33.
Because, you know, numbers.
That said, while (I think) it's scheduled to start streaming next week, it does appear to still be in theatres. Is there another $18M out there that can push it over $1.4Bn?