Discuter de Top Gun: Maverick
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Early box office notes
posté par DRDMovieMusingsSTAFFMOD le 30 mai 2022 à 02h28
Top Gun had a budget of $15M and generated $356.8M, paying a splendid $23.79 revenue for each budget dollar.
Top Gun: Maverick had a budget of >10x the 1986 first installment, $170M. To repeat the profitability, it'll have to generate over $4Bn....not going to happen.
The average ROI on the first sequel (2nd installment) in a franchise is 35% of the 1st installment, so 35% of $23.79 is $8.33, which would be total box office of $1.4Bn, which is well within reach.
In my database of over 2400 titles dating back to 1924, I've got 42 titles that have pulled in upwards of $1Bn - of note:
- first was Titanic, 1997
- I've got eight titles in 2019 that topped $1Bn the last full year before the shut down
- I've got five titles that have topped $2Bn
- I've no title that hit $3Bn (Avengers: Endgame and Avatar both approached $2.8Bn)
Judging by the reviews thus far, this seems like a good movie for the big screen, at least, in terms of action. American jingoism may be too low to buoy this up far beyond those seeking some 80s nostalgia, but 1) the action component, 2) people wanting to be out and amongst other people, and 3) that nostalgia factor, should come together to do solid business.
Last note - opening weekend was good, at $248M, compare that with, say, The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, which put up $250M en route to a final box office of $1.1Bn, which, waddya know? is roughly in the ballpark with our above estimate for TG:M of $1.4Bn. I'd say it's shaping up better for TG:M because TLotR:RotK had to compete for movie-goers dollars with a few action movies, while I don't expect there is going to be much competition in theatres to slow down ticket sales.
Let's see where TG:M finally lands.
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 5 juin 2022 à 15h22
TG: M has surpassed $500M worldwide - it's now paid back $3.23 in revenue for each budget dollar.
Still hasn't released across all global markets yet, so our outlook (paying $8.33 on revenues over $1.4Bn) is not dead yet.
Sequels are curious, from a business perspective, because they seldom every make anywhere near as much money as their respective first installments (I've crunched some numbers, if I could post a graph on this site, you'd see it very clearly - I'll write an entry on my blog at some point, because pictures are often worth thousands of words). Making a sequel almost always costs more in budget, which is the first challenge to repeating ROI. Expectations can also kill ticket sales - the first installment is usually a big surprise, as people brought little expectations; but then, sequels must live up to the hype, and it can be tough to catch lightning in a bottle twice. At any rate, Top Gun (1986) paid $23.79 - if TG: M (2022) pays anywhere near even our target of one third of that, producers will be ecstatic. You know, law of diminished returns or something.
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 17 juin 2022 à 17h07
Now at $806M, paying $4.74, and counting...
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 22 juin 2022 à 01h29
Now at $901,900,000 paying $5.30...
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 25 juin 2022 à 17h24
$926.6M, paying $5.45....
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 26 juin 2022 à 18h30
$1,006,423,000.00 paying $5.92
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 30 juin 2022 à 15h54
$1,021,000,000 paying $6.01
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 4 juillet 2022 à 14h29
$1,108,520,367 paying $6.52
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 15 juillet 2022 à 14h29
$1,191,900,127 paying $7.01 - not sure if it's going to get to $8.33, but this ain't terrible!
I didn't take snapshots at regular time intervals, so the current logarithmical target of $1.25Bn, paying $7.38 isn't the sharpest...but let's see how it goes over the next two weeks.
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 18 juillet 2022 à 17h50
$1,238,831,332 paying $7.29
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 21 juillet 2022 à 18h31
$1.244Bn, paying $7.32
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 26 juillet 2022 à 16h55
$1.284Bn paying $7.55
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 31 juillet 2022 à 16h29
$1.321Bn paying $7.77
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 8 août 2022 à 11h11
$1.353Bn paying $7.96 which is 33.5% of original's pay.
Still in theatres though - is there another $46.8M out there to hit this pay target of $8.33?
Let's see...
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 14 août 2022 à 15h55
Picked up another $25.5M, bringing total to $1.378Bn, paying $8.11 which is 34.1% of original's pay.
Réponse de DRDMovieMusings
le 19 août 2022 à 15h58
Picked up another $3.4M, bringing total to $1.382Bn, paying $8.13, which is 34.2% of original pay, and lands within less than 1% margin of error to target pay of $8.33.
Because, you know, numbers.
That said, while (I think) it's scheduled to start streaming next week, it does appear to still be in theatres. Is there another $18M out there that can push it over $1.4Bn?