Über Top Gun: Maverick diskutieren
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Early box office notes
Verfasst von DRDMovieMusingsSTAFFMOD am 30. Mai 2022 um 02:28
Top Gun had a budget of $15M and generated $356.8M, paying a splendid $23.79 revenue for each budget dollar.
Top Gun: Maverick had a budget of >10x the 1986 first installment, $170M. To repeat the profitability, it'll have to generate over $4Bn....not going to happen.
The average ROI on the first sequel (2nd installment) in a franchise is 35% of the 1st installment, so 35% of $23.79 is $8.33, which would be total box office of $1.4Bn, which is well within reach.
In my database of over 2400 titles dating back to 1924, I've got 42 titles that have pulled in upwards of $1Bn - of note:
- first was Titanic, 1997
- I've got eight titles in 2019 that topped $1Bn the last full year before the shut down
- I've got five titles that have topped $2Bn
- I've no title that hit $3Bn (Avengers: Endgame and Avatar both approached $2.8Bn)
Judging by the reviews thus far, this seems like a good movie for the big screen, at least, in terms of action. American jingoism may be too low to buoy this up far beyond those seeking some 80s nostalgia, but 1) the action component, 2) people wanting to be out and amongst other people, and 3) that nostalgia factor, should come together to do solid business.
Last note - opening weekend was good, at $248M, compare that with, say, The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, which put up $250M en route to a final box office of $1.1Bn, which, waddya know? is roughly in the ballpark with our above estimate for TG:M of $1.4Bn. I'd say it's shaping up better for TG:M because TLotR:RotK had to compete for movie-goers dollars with a few action movies, while I don't expect there is going to be much competition in theatres to slow down ticket sales.
Let's see where TG:M finally lands.
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 5. Juni 2022 um 15:22
TG: M has surpassed $500M worldwide - it's now paid back $3.23 in revenue for each budget dollar.
Still hasn't released across all global markets yet, so our outlook (paying $8.33 on revenues over $1.4Bn) is not dead yet.
Sequels are curious, from a business perspective, because they seldom every make anywhere near as much money as their respective first installments (I've crunched some numbers, if I could post a graph on this site, you'd see it very clearly - I'll write an entry on my blog at some point, because pictures are often worth thousands of words). Making a sequel almost always costs more in budget, which is the first challenge to repeating ROI. Expectations can also kill ticket sales - the first installment is usually a big surprise, as people brought little expectations; but then, sequels must live up to the hype, and it can be tough to catch lightning in a bottle twice. At any rate, Top Gun (1986) paid $23.79 - if TG: M (2022) pays anywhere near even our target of one third of that, producers will be ecstatic. You know, law of diminished returns or something.
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 17. Juni 2022 um 17:07
Now at $806M, paying $4.74, and counting...
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 22. Juni 2022 um 01:29
Now at $901,900,000 paying $5.30...
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 25. Juni 2022 um 17:24
$926.6M, paying $5.45....
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 26. Juni 2022 um 18:30
$1,006,423,000.00 paying $5.92
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 30. Juni 2022 um 15:54
$1,021,000,000 paying $6.01
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 4. Juli 2022 um 14:29
$1,108,520,367 paying $6.52
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 15. Juli 2022 um 14:29
$1,191,900,127 paying $7.01 - not sure if it's going to get to $8.33, but this ain't terrible!
I didn't take snapshots at regular time intervals, so the current logarithmical target of $1.25Bn, paying $7.38 isn't the sharpest...but let's see how it goes over the next two weeks.
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 18. Juli 2022 um 17:50
$1,238,831,332 paying $7.29
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 21. Juli 2022 um 18:31
$1.244Bn, paying $7.32
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 26. Juli 2022 um 16:55
$1.284Bn paying $7.55
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 31. Juli 2022 um 16:29
$1.321Bn paying $7.77
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 8. August 2022 um 11:11
$1.353Bn paying $7.96 which is 33.5% of original's pay.
Still in theatres though - is there another $46.8M out there to hit this pay target of $8.33?
Let's see...
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 14. August 2022 um 15:55
Picked up another $25.5M, bringing total to $1.378Bn, paying $8.11 which is 34.1% of original's pay.
Antwort von DRDMovieMusings
am 19. August 2022 um 15:58
Picked up another $3.4M, bringing total to $1.382Bn, paying $8.13, which is 34.2% of original pay, and lands within less than 1% margin of error to target pay of $8.33.
Because, you know, numbers.
That said, while (I think) it's scheduled to start streaming next week, it does appear to still be in theatres. Is there another $18M out there that can push it over $1.4Bn?