It's performing as expected.

... Excerpt from Box Office: ‘Fast X’ Zooms to $67.5M U.S. Opening, $319M Globally:

Universal’s Fast X raced to a North American debut of $67.5 million and a rousing $318.9 million globally as the core franchise winds down. That’s a promising start for the 10th installment even if the movie is seeing lower returns in the United States.

Overseas is a different matter, where Fast X cleared a huge $251.4 million in its international debut. Its global opening makes it the No. 2 debut of the year behind fellow Universal’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($377 million) and the No. 3 global opening of the franchise behind The Fate of the Furious and Furious 7. Internationally, it is the top opening of 2023 so far.

... Excerpts from ‘Fast X’ Stays Steady Toward $67M Opening, 4% Behind ‘F9’ – Early Sunday AM Box Office Update:

EARLY SUNDAY AM writethru after Saturday and Friday updates: The Louis Leterrier-directed Fast X on Friday came in at $28 million, with Saturday easing by 21% to $22.2M for what has always been an expected $67 million start for the tenthquel. That is just $3M shy of F9‘s $70M — not too bad.

The finish line this weekend, as we’ve always told you, will be worldwide, which is on its way to a $320M haul, the third best global start for a Fast & Furious movie after Fate of the Furious ($541.9M) and Furious 7 ($397.6M). Endgame global on F9 was $726.2M, and clearly this should leg out to be a little higher than that, though lower than Fate of the Furious which ended its run at $1.2 billion global.

Here’s how top 10 chart estimates are looking for the weekend:

1.) Fast X (Uni) 4,046 theaters Fri $28M, Sat $22.2M, Sun $16.8M 3-day $67M/Wk 1

2.) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Dis) 4,450 theaters Fri $8.3M Sat $14M Sun $10.4M 3-day $32.7M (-47%), Total $267.2M/Wk 3

3) Super Mario Bros (Uni) 3,540 (-260) theaters, Fri $2.25M Sat $4.45M Sun 3-day $9.8M (-22%) Total $549.2M/Wk 7

4) Book Club: Next Chapter (Foc) 3,513 (+5) theaters Fri $900K Sat $1.2M Sun $900K 3-day $3M (-55%) Total $13.1M/Wk 2

5) Evil Dead Rise (NL) 2,173 (-648) theaters, Fri $685K Sat $1M Sun $715K 3-day $2.4M (-35%) Total $64.1M/Wk 5

6) John Wick Chapter 4 (LG) 1,312 (-301) theaters Fri $330K Sat $600K Sun $400K, 3-day $1.33M (-36%), Total $185.3M/Wk 9

7) Are You There God?…(LG) 1,668 (-697) theaters, Fri $330 Sat $600K Sun $400K, 3-day $1.3M (-48%) Total $18.6M /Wk 3

8) Hypnotic (Ketchup) 1,733 (-385) theaters, Fri $240K Sat $370K Sun $275K 3-day $885K (-63%) Total $4.1M/Wk 2

9) Blackberry (IFC) 595 (-75) theaters Fri $155K Sat $225K Sun $155K 3 day $535K (+9%) Total $1.2M/Wk 2

10) Dungeons & Dragons...(Par/eOne) 511 (-423) theaters Fri $104K Sat $178K Sun $108K 3-day $390K (-51%) Total $92.8M/Wk 8

The CinemaScore for Fast X came in at B+, the same grade as F9, both being down from latter sequel highs of Fate of the Furious (A), Furious 7 (A) and Hobbs & Shaw (A-) — all of which interestingly enough starred Dwayne Johnson.

@wonder2wonder said:

It's performing as expected.

The CinemaScore for Fast X came in at B+, the same grade as F9, both being down from latter sequel highs of Fate of the Furious (A), Furious 7 (A) and Hobbs & Shaw (A-) — all of which interestingly enough starred Dwayne Johnson.

When it comes to gaining some measure of opening night or opening weekend, I like what CinemaScore is doing and I've read that Hollywood insiders are quite content with the insight and general forecast that the CinemaScore provides. A movie will either either please their audience or disappoint their audience, and box office performance will follow accordingly.

I don't watch this franchise (haven't seen one of them), so I've no idea (and thus have no emotional stake either way). A CinemaScore of B+ is middling , not great but not too bad.

Those who have watched any of this franchise, and have seen this movie, did you give it a general thumbs up or thumbs down?

While I developed ReelROI(tm) for my movie ROI database, and have wondered if I could derive anything meaningful from tracking opening weekend box gross, I've never tracked it because I couldn't think of a way to extrapolate that into something meaningful.

I mean, for your average movie, what SHOULD opening weekend gross be? How would we know if opening weekend gross was good or bad?

How would we calculate what the final numbers will eventually be based on opening weekend?

How would I approach comparing opening weekend gross for this movie vs...any other movie, or another movie within its franchise?

I decided CinemaScore currently offers more insight and value than I could cook up with some homebrew calculation. If anyone has a suggestion for how to make opening weekend gross useful, let me know!

@DRDMovieMusings said:

How would I approach comparing opening weekend gross for this movie vs...any other movie, or another movie within its franchise?

I guess I could do this myself - but I'm asking as I think you've said before you have built up a database of box office takings for major films - but I was wondering how the F&F franchise average worldwide box office stacks up against that of the James Bond films since Daniel Craig took over?

@Midi-chlorian_Count said:

@DRDMovieMusings said:

How would I approach comparing opening weekend gross for this movie vs...any other movie, or another movie within its franchise?

I guess I could do this myself - but I'm asking as I think you've said before you have built up a database of box office takings for major films -

Yes, I have - over 2800 titles (and counting) from 1924 to present!

but I was wondering how the F&F franchise average worldwide box office stacks up against that of the James Bond films since Daniel Craig took over?

I've done some number-crunching both of these franchises. I can definitely get you some numbers on how F&F stacks up - I'll get cooking on that and circle back soon!

Thanks - it will be interesting to see.

I ask because I was kind of shocked to see that the last Bond film had made only marginally more than Fast 9 despite it being well hyped as the end of the Craig era, etc. Not sure how their respective budgets would feed into that as well but it seems that Bond isn't as big as I'd thought it was.

@Midi-chlorian_Count said:

Thanks - it will be interesting to see.

I ask because I was kind of shocked to see that the last Bond film had made only marginally more than Fast 9 despite it being well hyped as the end of the Craig era, etc. Not sure how their respective budgets would feed into that as well but it seems that Bond isn't as big as I'd thought it was.

Okay, let's get into this!

F&F vs. Craig's Bond, Average Revenue

Daniel Craig played Bond in five movies during a span of 15 years that started in 2006:

Casino Royale (2006) Quantum of Solace (2008) Skyfall (2012) Spectre (2015) No Time to Die (2021)

• Total Revenue: $3,948,525,316
• Average Revenue: $789,705,063

Since 2006, there have been eight F&F movies:

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006) Fast & Furious (2009) Fast Five (2011) Fast & Furious 6 (2013) Furious 7 (2015) The Fate of the Furious (2017) F9 (2021) Fast X (2023)

• Total Revenue: $5,754,263,636
• Average Revenue: $719,282,955

So, in terms of average revenue, Craig's Bond movies would appear to narrowly edge F&F movies.

However, in raw business terms, F&F pays more return on investment for the movie makers. Check it out...

ReelROI(tm) Return on Investment

Craig's Bond films

• Total Revenue: $3,948,525,316
• Production Budget: $1,045,000,000
• ReelROI(tm): $3.78

F&F since 2006

• Total Revenue: $5,754,263,636
• Production Budget: $1,435,000,000
• ReelROI(tm): $4.01

And, to be clear, Fast X has not yet even been out for a full week. When the final tally of its box office run comes in, that pay of $4.01 is going to be higher.

If you had money to invest in a movie production, which rate of return would you prefer? Yeah, me too :-)

Fast 9 vs. No Time to Die

Fast 9

• Revenue: $1,238,764,765
• Budget: $250,000,000
• ReelROI(tm): $4.96

No Time to Die

• Revenue: $774,153,007
• Budget: $250,000,000
• ReelROI(tm): $3.10

On the same budget, F9 made almost $2.00 MORE than NttD, amounting to over $400 million more!

The Bond franchise may not be what you thought it was, but keep in mind its rights are owned by one family who've been raking in millions since Dr. No hit theatres in 1962.

Across a lifetime of over 60 years, 25 films have generated ~$7.4Bn in revenues over budgets totalling $1.6Bn, and paid $4.55 (or 455%) - there are worse ways to make a living in this world :-)

PS. I had written a whole thing about my database and methodology but deleted it. If any of my numbers make no sense to you, or you'd like more clarity on my approach, I'll be happy to then provide more info.

Thanks!

Great stuff, very interesting... I think Toyko Drift was a much smaller production, with less interest than the subsequent productions had, but was made on a much smaller scale (I was just reading the other night Paul Walker wasn't invited back as they wanted to reduce costs). So that may explain the smaller average but higher profitability overall...

Only thing is - I don't think that figure for Fast 9 is right:- https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl192906753/

It says ~ £726m there - hence my surprise it was just a little bit less than the Craig "Bond" finale. Have you used another film - looks like maybe Fate Of The Furious?

Plus I don't know about Hobbs & Shaw - it is a spin off but I guess these are F&F characters.

@Midi-chlorian_Count said:

Thanks!

Great stuff, very interesting... I think Toyko Drift was a much smaller production, with less interest than the subsequent productions had, but was made on a much smaller scale (I was just reading the other night Paul Walker wasn't invited back as they wanted to reduce costs). So that may explain the smaller average but higher profitability overall...

Tokyo Drift appears to be the poorest performing installment in the entire franchise. It generated $158,468,292 over a budget of $85M for a woeful return of just $1.86. While it is smart to control budget, not keeping Paul Walker (or any other of the big anchor names in the franchise) might not have been the best way to do that.

Only thing is - I don't think that figure for Fast 9 is right:- https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl192906753/

It says ~ £726m there - hence my surprise it was just a little bit less than the Craig "Bond" finale. Have you used another film - looks like maybe Fate Of The Furious?

You're right, my numbers on F9 are wrong!

F9 did $726,229,501 over a budget of $200,00,000 for a ReelROI of $3.63

So, yes, it did not quite reach NttD's revenues of $774M but, again, with a lower budget of $200M, it still paid a little better.

Plus I don't know about Hobbs & Shaw - it is a spin off but I guess these are F&F characters.

TMDb has not (yet?) included it in the F&F "collection" (the definition and application of which is debated on this site) but it did $760M over a budget of $200M paying $3.80

Looks like Toyko Drift actually pre-dates Daniel Craig's reign - June 2006 release Vs November 2006.

Therefore I removed it's takings and divided the F&F box office total by seven instead, which gives F&F an average revenue of £799, 399,334 instead vs Bond's £789,705,063. And that's still just including Fast X's box office to date, so it's going to finish even higher.

So it looks like the mainline series outranks Bond both in terms of revenue and profitability.

Adding Hobbs & Shaw to that total and dividing by eight films comes out at slightly lower average of £794,566,034. Lower but still above Craig's figures as Bond!

It's a bit of a surprise this really.

C'est devenu une sorte de film d'action :( Tokyo Drift était la partie la plus cool. Vous n'êtes pas d'accord ?

It became kind of an action movie :( Tokyo Drift was the coolest part. Don't you agree?

@DRDMovieMusings said:

And, to be clear, Fast X has not yet even been out for a full week. When the final tally of its box office run comes in, that pay of $4.01 is going to be higher.

Hold the phone, maybe not!

It's currently at $699.2 million which, over a $340 million production budget, is a ReelROI(tm) of just $2.06 (but still better than Tokyo Drift's $1.89!)

Still, that's small consolation - it needs $1.02 billion just to stumble to paying $3.00! Even if there is still another $300 million in ticket sales out there, this installment is underperforming both franchise standard (since 2006) and the industry standard of $3.50.

@DRDMovieMusings said:

@DRDMovieMusings said:

And, to be clear, Fast X has not yet even been out for a full week. When the final tally of its box office run comes in, that pay of $4.01 is going to be higher.

Hold the phone, maybe not!

It's currently at $712 million which, over a $340 million production budget, is a ReelROI(tm) of just $2.09 (but still better than Tokyo Drift's $1.89!)

Still, that's small consolation - it needs $1.02 billion just to stumble to paying $3.00! Even if there is still another $300 million in ticket sales out there, this installment is underperforming both franchise standard (since 2006) and the industry standard of $3.50.

There were only two movies of the franchise that grossed over $1 billion. Paul Walker's last appearance in " Furious 7 (2015)" and the next one "The Fate of the Furious (2017)". Both have a CinemaScore of A.

"F9 (2021)" with a budget of $200–225 million did allright; box office: $726 million. CinemaScore: B+.

"Fast X (2023)" massive budget of $340 million meant that its final gross will have to be much more than the previous movie, which is not possible as it only performed as - not surpassing what was - expected in the opening weekend. CinemaScore: B+.

There's some weird massive budgets at the moment, what with this and Indiana Jones. Plus there seems to be a ridiculous stack of "blockbusters" all being released very close to each other - Flash, Transformers, Spider-verse, Mission Impossible, Oppenheimer, Barbie...

I would if there was some sort of backlog created due to COVID and now they're all being released relatively close together despite the studios knowing they'll surely take a hit as they just have to get them out as the bandwagon rolls on.

They said that the Fast X budget was hit not only by the director walk out but by COVID and also rampant recent inflation. I wonder if Indiana Jones had the same issues.